The Book of Threat Models

#threat-models #security #realism

I. Purpose

This text exists to remove ambiguity.

Power is not abstract.
It does not operate through ideology alone.
It acts through incentives, leverage, and enforcement.

This book does not speculate.
It documents patterns.

Preparedness begins with clarity.

II. What a Threat Model Is

A threat model is not fear.
It is accounting.

It answers three questions:

Anything not in the model is noise.

Optimism without modeling is negligence.

III. State Coercion

The state rarely begins with force.

It begins with:

Force is reserved for those who remain legible and immobile.

Coercion scales through bureaucracy, not violence.
Its preferred tools are delay, uncertainty, and cost.

The objective is not punishment.
It is control.

IV. Corporate Capture

Corporations do not oppose the state.
They integrate with it.

Capture occurs when:

Corporate power is not independent.
It is delegated.

Threat models that ignore this layer are incomplete.

V. Social-Layer Attacks

Most systems fail socially before they fail technically.

Social-layer attacks include:

These attacks do not require law.
They require coordination.

The goal is isolation, not refutation.

VI. Regulation as Narrative Warfare

Regulation is rarely neutral.

It is framed as:

Language precedes enforcement.

By the time rules are debated, the narrative has already assigned guilt and virtue.

Compliance becomes a moral obligation.
Noncompliance becomes deviance.

VII. “Consumer Protection” as Control

Protection implies vulnerability.

When individuals are framed as incapable, intermediaries are justified. When intermediaries exist, custody shifts. When custody shifts, leverage emerges.

Consumer protection is not designed to protect consumers.
It is designed to protect systems from exit.

The cost of protection is sovereignty.

VIII. Escalation Patterns

Power escalates predictably.

  1. Observe
  2. Register
  3. Regulate
  4. Restrict
  5. Enforce

Each step appears reasonable in isolation.
Together, they form containment.

Threat models must account for sequence, not just events.

IX. What This Book Does Not Do

It does not predict timelines.
It does not name enemies.
It does not recommend confrontation.

Paranoia assumes intent everywhere.
Naivety assumes intent nowhere.

This text assumes incentives.

X. Preparedness

Preparedness is not resistance.

It is:

A good threat model is boring.

That is its success.

XI. Final Statement

Power does not need to be evil to be dangerous.

It only needs to be misaligned.

This book does not ask you to fear authority.
It asks you to understand it.

Not paranoid.
Prepared.